breed [brazilians brazilian] breed [argentinians argentinian] breed [venezuelans venezuelan] turtles-own [ economic-freedom ; composed by level of propety right protection, governement spending, labor and monetary freedom, trade freedom governement ; if democracy 0, if dictatorship 1 press-liberty ; from a survey about direct attacks on journalists and indirect sources of pressure against the free press income ; obtained from cdf of income across population education ; obtained from average individual expenditure on education as a share of income coffee-brazil ; individual consumption of coffee produced in Brazil coffee-venezuela ; individual consumption of coffee produced in Venezuela class-brazil ; class of the income distribution in Brazil class-argentina ; class of the income distribution in Argentina class-venezuela ; class of the income distribution in Venezuela SAVE-coffee-brazil ; individual consumption of brazilian coffee when there in no duty SAVE-coffee-venezuela ; individual consumption of venezuelan coffee when there in no duty VarLag ; variable Lag ; time needed for the adjustment of the coffee quantity after the duty (a lag correspond to a quarter) time duty ] to setup clear-all create-brazilians 194 [ set shape "person" set color green set economic-freedom 58 set governement 0 set press-liberty 35 ] ask brazilians [ let s random-normal 0 5 let c random-float 1.0 if c <= 0.2 [ set class-brazil 1 set income (7.3 + s) set size 0.5 ] if c > 0.2 and c <= 0.4 [ set class-brazil 2 set income (18.4 + s) set size 0.5 ] if c > 0.4 and c <= 0.6 [ set class-brazil 3 set income (32 + s) set size 1 ] if c > 0.6 and c <= 0.8 [ set class-brazil 4 set income (49.1 + s) set size 1 ] if c > 0.8 and c <= 1 [ set class-brazil 5 set income (151 + s) set size 2.5 ] if income < 0 [ set income 0 ] let j (random-normal 1 0.025) * (0.05 * income) set education (0.05 * income + j) ] ask n-of 184 brazilians [ if class-brazil = 1 [set coffee-brazil 1.2 + (222.44 / 184 + random-normal 0 0.1)] if class-brazil = 2 [set coffee-brazil 2.417 + (222.44 / 184 + random-normal 0 0.1)] if class-brazil = 3 [set coffee-brazil 6.044 + (222.44 / 184 + random-normal 0 0.1)] if class-brazil = 4 [set coffee-brazil 6.044 + (222.44 / 184 + random-normal 0 0.1)] if class-brazil = 5 [set coffee-brazil 8.462 + (222.44 / 184 + random-normal 0 0.1)] ] ask brazilians with [coffee-brazil = 0] [ if class-brazil = 1 [set coffee-venezuela 0.26 + (2.6 / 10 + random-normal 0 0.1)] if class-brazil = 2 [set coffee-venezuela 0.52 + (2.6 / 10 + random-normal 0 0.1)] if class-brazil = 3 [set coffee-venezuela 1.3 + (2.6 / 10 + random-normal 0 0.1)] if class-brazil = 4 [set coffee-venezuela 1.3 + (2.6 / 10 + random-normal 0 0.1)] if class-brazil = 5 [set coffee-venezuela 1.82 + (2.6 / 10 + random-normal 0 0.1)] ] create-argentinians 41 [ set shape "person" set color white set economic-freedom 48 set governement 0 set press-liberty 14 ] ask argentinians [ let g random-normal 0 15 let f random-float 1.0 if f <= 0.2 [ set class-argentina 1 set income (53 + g) set size 1 ] if f > 0.2 and f <= 0.4 [ set class-argentina 2 set income (113 + g) set size 2 ] if f > 0.4 and f <= 0.6 [ set class-argentina 3 set income (180 + g) set size 2.5 ] if f > 0.6 and f <= 0.8 [ set class-argentina 4 set income (270 + g) set size 3 ] if f > 0.8 and f <= 1 [ set class-argentina 5 set income (602 + g) set size 4 ] if income < 0 [ set income 0 ] let k (random-normal 1 0.019) * (0.038 * income) set education (0.038 * income + k) ] ask n-of 25 argentinians [ if class-argentina = 1 [set coffee-brazil 0.72 + (6 / 25 + random-normal 0 0.1)] if class-argentina = 2 [set coffee-brazil 0.72 + (6 / 25 + random-normal 0 0.1)] if class-argentina = 3 [set coffee-brazil 0.96 + (6 / 25 + random-normal 0 0.1)] if class-argentina = 4 [set coffee-brazil 0.96 + (6 / 25 + random-normal 0 0.1)] if class-argentina = 5 [set coffee-brazil 1.44 + (6 / 25 + random-normal 0 0.1)] ] ask argentinians with [coffee-brazil = 0] [ if class-argentina = 1 [set coffee-venezuela 0.412 + (2.2 / 16 + random-normal 0 0.1)] if class-argentina = 2 [set coffee-venezuela 0.412 + (2.2 / 16 + random-normal 0 0.1)] if class-argentina = 3 [set coffee-venezuela 0.55 + (2.2 / 16 + random-normal 0 0.1)] if class-argentina = 4 [set coffee-venezuela 0.55 + (2.2 / 16 + random-normal 0 0.1)] if class-argentina = 5 [set coffee-venezuela 0.825 + (2.2 / 16 + random-normal 0 0.1)] ] create-venezuelans 29 [ set shape "person" set color red set economic-freedom 38 set governement 1 set press-liberty 55 ] ask venezuelans [ let t random-normal 0 50 let i random-float 1.0 if i <= 0.2 [ set class-venezuela 1 set income (73.8 + t) set size 1.5 ] if i > 0.2 and i <= 0.4 [ set class-venezuela 2 set income (164.1 + t) set size 2.5 ] if i > 0.4 and i <= 0.6 [ set class-venezuela 3 set income (251.7 + t) set size 3 ] if i > 0.6 and i <= 0.8 [ set class-venezuela 4 set income (382.4 + t) set size 3.5 ] if i > 0.8 and i <= 1 [ set class-venezuela 5 set income (852 + t) set size 4.5 ] if income < 0 [ set income 0 ] let l (random-normal 1 0.026) * (0.052 * income) set education (0.052 * income + l) ] ask n-of 20 venezuelans [ if class-venezuela = 1 [set coffee-venezuela 0.6 + (6 / 20 + random-normal 0 0.1)] if class-venezuela = 2 [set coffee-venezuela 0.9 + (6 / 20 + random-normal 0 0.1)] if class-venezuela = 3 [set coffee-venezuela 1.2 + (6 / 20 + random-normal 0 0.1)] if class-venezuela = 4 [set coffee-venezuela 1.5 + (6 / 20 + random-normal 0 0.1)] if class-venezuela = 5 [set coffee-venezuela 1.8 + (6 / 20 + random-normal 0 0.1)] ] ask venezuelans with [coffee-venezuela = 0] [ if class-venezuela = 1 [set coffee-brazil 0.728 + (3.28 / 9 + random-normal 0 0.1)] if class-venezuela = 2 [set coffee-brazil 1.093 + (3.28 / 9 + random-normal 0 0.1)] if class-venezuela = 3 [set coffee-brazil 1.457 + (3.28 / 9 + random-normal 0 0.1)] if class-venezuela = 4 [set coffee-brazil 1.822 + (3.28 / 9 + random-normal 0 0.1)] if class-venezuela = 5 [set coffee-brazil 2.186 + (3.28 / 9 + random-normal 0 0.1)] ] ask turtles [ if chooserX = "coffee-brazil" [set xcor coffee-brazil * 10] if chooserX = "coffee-venezuela" [set xcor coffee-venezuela * 10] if chooserX = "coffee-brazil&coffee-venezuela" [set xcor (coffee-brazil + coffee-venezuela) * 10] if chooserY = "income" [set ycor income / 10] if chooserY = "education" [set ycor education ] set Period "0" set DutyBrazilOnVenezuelanCoffee " " set DutyArgentinaOnBrazilianCoffee " " set DutyArgentinaOnVenezuelanCoffee " " set DutyVenezuelaOnBrazilianCoffee " " ] ask turtles [ set SAVE-coffee-brazil coffee-brazil set SAVE-coffee-venezuela coffee-venezuela ] ask turtles [ Set VarLag (income - education - press-liberty + (governement * 10)) if VarLag <= 100 [set lag 1] if VarLag > 100 and VarLAg <= 300 [set lag 2] if VarLag > 300 and VarLAg <= 600 [set lag 3] if VarLag > 600 [set lag 4] ] let TotalCoffeeBrazil sum [coffee-brazil] of turtles show TotalCoffeeBrazil let TotalCoffeeVenezuela sum [coffee-venezuela] of turtles show TotalCoffeeVenezuela let Sum1CoffeeBrazil sum [coffee-brazil] of brazilians show Sum1CoffeeBrazil let Sum1CoffeeVenezuela sum [coffee-venezuela] of brazilians show Sum1CoffeeVenezuela let Sum2CoffeeBrazil sum [coffee-brazil] of argentinians show Sum2CoffeeBrazil let Sum2CoffeeVenezuela sum [coffee-venezuela] of argentinians show Sum2CoffeeVenezuela let Sum3CoffeeBrazil sum [coffee-brazil] of venezuelans show Sum3CoffeeBrazil let Sum3CoffeeVenezuela sum [coffee-venezuela] of venezuelans show Sum3CoffeeVenezuela reset-ticks end to SetDisplay ask turtles [ if chooserX = "coffee-brazil" [set xcor coffee-brazil * 10] if chooserX = "coffee-venezuela" [set xcor coffee-venezuela * 10] if chooserX = "coffee-brazil&coffee-venezuela" [set xcor (coffee-brazil + coffee-venezuela) * 10] if chooserY = "income" [set ycor income / 10] if chooserY = "education" [set ycor education] ] end to go ask turtles [ if time < 5 [set time (time + 1)] if time = 5 [set time 1] ] ask brazilians [ if coffee-brazil = 0 [ if time = 1 [ if random-float 1 < Brazil-DutyProbability [ set duty 1 ] ] if time = lag and duty = 1 [ set coffee-venezuela (coffee-venezuela + (dutyBrazil * (-0.6) + random-normal 0 0.05)) ] if coffee-venezuela < 0 [ set coffee-venezuela 0 ] if time = 1 [ if random-float 1 < NoDuty-Probability [ set coffee-venezuela SAVE-coffee-venezuela ] ] ] ] ask argentinians [ if coffee-venezuela = 0 [ if time = 1 [ if random-float 1 < Argentina-DutyProbability [ set duty 2 ] ] if time = lag and duty = 2 [ set coffee-brazil (coffee-brazil + (dutyArgentina * (-0.5) + random-normal 0 0.05)) ] if coffee-brazil < 0 [ set coffee-brazil 0 ] if time = 1 [ if random-float 1 < NoDuty-Probability [ set coffee-brazil SAVE-coffee-brazil ] ] ] if coffee-brazil = 0 [ if time = 1 [ if random-float 1 < Argentina-DutyProbability [ set duty 3 ] ] if time = lag and duty = 3 [ set coffee-venezuela (coffee-venezuela + (dutyArgentina * (-0.5) + random-normal 0 0.05)) ] if coffee-venezuela < 0 [ set coffee-venezuela 0 ] if time = 1 [ if random-float 1 < NoDuty-Probability [ set coffee-venezuela SAVE-coffee-venezuela ] ] ] ] ask venezuelans [ if coffee-venezuela = 0 [ if time = 1 [ if random-float 1 < Venezuela-DutyProbability [ set duty 4 ] ] if time = lag and duty = 4 [ set coffee-brazil (coffee-brazil + (dutyVenezuela * (-0.7) + random-normal 0 0.05)) ] if coffee-brazil < 0 [ set coffee-brazil 0 ] if time = 1 [ if random-float 1 < NoDuty-Probability [ set coffee-brazil SAVE-coffee-brazil ] ] ] ] ask turtles [ if chooserX = "coffee-brazil" [set xcor coffee-brazil * 10] if chooserX = "coffee-venezuela" [set xcor coffee-venezuela * 10] if chooserX = "coffee-brazil&coffee-venezuela" [set xcor (coffee-brazil + coffee-venezuela) * 10] if chooserY = "income" [set ycor income / 10] if chooserY = "education" [set ycor education] ] ask turtles [ if time = 1 [set Period "1"] if time = 2 [set Period "2"] if time = 3 [set Period "3"] if time = 4 [set Period "4"] if time = 1 and random-float 1 < Brazil-DutyProbability [set DutyBrazilOnVenezuelanCoffee "YES"] if time = 1 and random-float 1 < Argentina-DutyProbability [set DutyArgentinaOnBrazilianCoffee "YES"] if time = 1 and random-float 1 < Argentina-DutyProbability [set DutyArgentinaOnVenezuelanCoffee "YES"] if time = 1 and random-float 1 < Venezuela-DutyProbability [set DutyVenezuelaOnBrazilianCoffee "YES"] if time = 1 and random-float 1 > Brazil-DutyProbability [set DutyBrazilOnVenezuelanCoffee "NO"] if time = 1 and random-float 1 > Argentina-DutyProbability [set DutyArgentinaOnBrazilianCoffee "NO"] if time = 1 and random-float 1 > Argentina-DutyProbability [set DutyArgentinaOnVenezuelanCoffee "NO"] if time = 1 and random-float 1 > Venezuela-DutyProbability [set DutyVenezuelaOnBrazilianCoffee "NO"] ] let TotalCoffeeBrazil sum [coffee-brazil] of turtles show TotalCoffeeBrazil let TotalCoffeeVenezuela sum [coffee-venezuela] of turtles show TotalCoffeeVenezuela tick end @#$#@#$#@ GRAPHICS-WINDOW 362 23 831 558 -1 -1 4.5 1 5 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 -1 100 -1 110 0 0 1 ticks 30.0 BUTTON 9 27 95 60 NIL setup NIL 1 T OBSERVER NIL NIL NIL NIL 1 CHOOSER 8 79 146 124 chooserY chooserY "income" "education" 0 CHOOSER 8 128 231 173 chooserX chooserX "coffee-brazil" "coffee-venezuela" "coffee-brazil&coffee-venezuela" 2 TEXTBOX 842 465 992 507 White: Argentinians\nRed: Venezuelans\nGreen: Brazilians 11 0.0 1 BUTTON 142 26 231 59 NIL SetDisplay NIL 1 T OBSERVER NIL NIL NIL NIL 1 BUTTON 835 36 898 69 NIL go NIL 1 T OBSERVER NIL NIL NIL NIL 1 SLIDER 836 98 1033 131 Brazil-DutyProbability Brazil-DutyProbability 0 1 0.5 0.1 1 NIL HORIZONTAL SLIDER 835 141 1030 174 Argentina-DutyProbability Argentina-DutyProbability 0 1 0.5 0.1 1 NIL HORIZONTAL SLIDER 834 188 1031 221 Venezuela-DutyProbability Venezuela-DutyProbability 0 1 0.5 0.1 1 NIL HORIZONTAL SLIDER 836 249 1008 282 dutyBrazil dutyBrazil 0 1 1 0.01 1 NIL HORIZONTAL SLIDER 836 286 1008 319 dutyArgentina dutyArgentina 0 1 1 0.01 1 NIL HORIZONTAL SLIDER 837 324 1009 357 dutyVenezuela dutyVenezuela 0 1 1 0.01 1 NIL HORIZONTAL PLOT 10 399 357 595 Coffee Type Consumption time coffee 0.0 10.0 0.0 1000.0 true true "" "" PENS "total coffee" 1.0 0 -16777216 true "" "plot sum [coffee-brazil + coffee-venezuela] of turtles" "brazilian coffee" 1.0 0 -15040220 true "" "plot sum [coffee-brazil] of turtles" "venezuelan coffee" 1.0 0 -2674135 true "" "plot sum [coffee-venezuela] of turtles" PLOT 10 185 358 391 National consumption time coffee consumption 0.0 10.0 0.0 100.0 true true "" "" PENS "All" 1.0 0 -16777216 true "" "plot sum [xcor] of turtles" "Brazil" 1.0 0 -15040220 true "" "plot sum [xcor] of brazilians" "Argentina" 1.0 0 -11221820 true "" "plot sum [xcor] of argentinians" "Venezuela" 1.0 0 -2674135 true "" "plot sum [xcor] of venezuelans" BUTTON 939 38 1002 71 NIL go T 1 T OBSERVER NIL NIL NIL NIL 1 SLIDER 837 400 1009 433 NoDuty-Probability NoDuty-Probability 0 1 0.5 0.1 1 NIL HORIZONTAL INPUTBOX 1065 86 1231 146 DutyBrazilOnVenezuelanCoffee NIL 1 0 String (reporter) INPUTBOX 1066 377 1118 437 Period 0 1 0 String INPUTBOX 1065 151 1232 211 DutyArgentinaOnBrazilianCoffee NIL 1 0 String INPUTBOX 1064 214 1234 275 DutyArgentinaOnVenezuelanCoffee NIL 1 0 String INPUTBOX 1065 279 1235 340 DutyVenezuelaOnBrazilianCoffee NIL 1 0 String @#$#@#$#@ ## WHAT IS IT? The simulation is based on the study of the effect of duties on internal coffee consumption. The goal of the model is to provide how consumers react when we introduce duties, given their wealth, level of education, economic and political freedom. The introduction of variables regarding economic and political freedom for each country can modify strongly the consumer behavior, having effects on consumption and trade. ## HOW IT WORKS We create X individuals for each country (where X reflects the cardinality of the population in every country). The three Nations (Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela) produce coffee in different proportions and quantities. Agents consume one of the two types of coffee produced and the amount depends mainly on their income. At the beginnings of every cycle (i.e. every 4 ticks) every Country has a given probability of introducing a new import duty; at the same time the duty can be removed with a given probability. Then, if the duty is effectively introduced in a Country, individuals react and reduce their consumption with a certain lag. This lag in their reaction depends positively on their wealth and negatively on their education and economic and political freedom of the country. ## HOW TO USE IT Click the SET UP button to set up the operators (agents). Click the GO button to run the simulation. Click the Set Display button to change the interface (change the coordinates of the axes within the same simulation). The agents are divided in three breeds: Brazilians (green), Argentinians (white) and Venezuelans (red). Click on CHOOSERY to change variable (income or education) on the y-axis. Click on CHOOSERX to change variable (quantity of brazilian coffee or quantity of venezuelan coffee or the sum of the two) on the x-axis. The SLIDERS show the probability that a duty is introduced (one slider for each country), the magnitude of the duty (one slider for each country) and the probability that the duty is eliminated. The NATIONAL CONSUMPTION PLOT shows how the coffee consumption in each country and the total coffee consumption change over time. The COFFEE TYPE CONSUMPTION PLOT shows how the total consumption of brazilian coffee, the total consumption of venezuelan coffee and the sum of the two change over time. The INPUT BUTTONS show if the duty has effectively been introduced at each cycle in the countries. The other INPUT BUTTON show the lag corresponding to the tick in every cycle. ## THINGS TO TRY With CHOOSERY and CHOOSERX it is possible to change variable on y-axis and x-axis respectively. With the SLIDERS it is possible to change the probability that a duty is introduced (one slider for each country) or to change the magnitude of the duty (one slider for each country) or to change the probability that the duty is eliminated. ## EXTENDING THE MODEL An interesting extention could be to introduce more commodities in order to see different reactions in complement or substitute goods when a duty is introduced on a certain one. An even more important extention could be to increase the interaction among countris. The idea is that the probability of introducing a new duty increases if another country has introduced a new one in the previous period (sort of duty war). The possibility of eliminating duties does not depend on a given probability but is decided jointly by the three nations when consumptions decrease over a certain level. ## NETLOGO FEATURES Interesting functions in the Code tab are : - ask N-OF 184 brazilians : ask 184 randomly chosen brazilians to do something. - random-float 1 < Venezuela-DutyProbability : useful to make the given value for the probability of introducing a duty, a probability. @#$#@#$#@ default true 0 Polygon -7500403 true true 150 5 40 250 150 205 260 250 airplane true 0 Polygon -7500403 true true 150 0 135 15 120 60 120 105 15 165 15 195 120 180 135 240 105 270 120 285 150 270 180 285 210 270 165 240 180 180 285 195 285 165 180 105 180 60 165 15 arrow true 0 Polygon -7500403 true true 150 0 0 150 105 150 105 293 195 293 195 150 300 150 box false 0 Polygon -7500403 true true 150 285 285 225 285 75 150 135 Polygon -7500403 true true 150 135 15 75 150 15 285 75 Polygon -7500403 true true 15 75 15 225 150 285 150 135 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60 0 150 0 165 0 225 300 225 300 180 Circle -16777216 true false 180 180 90 Circle -16777216 true false 30 180 90 Polygon -16777216 true false 162 80 132 78 134 135 209 135 194 105 189 96 180 89 Circle -7500403 true true 47 195 58 Circle -7500403 true true 195 195 58 circle false 0 Circle -7500403 true true 0 0 300 circle 2 false 0 Circle -7500403 true true 0 0 300 Circle -16777216 true false 30 30 240 cow false 0 Polygon -7500403 true true 200 193 197 249 179 249 177 196 166 187 140 189 93 191 78 179 72 211 49 209 48 181 37 149 25 120 25 89 45 72 103 84 179 75 198 76 252 64 272 81 293 103 285 121 255 121 242 118 224 167 Polygon -7500403 true true 73 210 86 251 62 249 48 208 Polygon -7500403 true true 25 114 16 195 9 204 23 213 25 200 39 123 cylinder false 0 Circle -7500403 true true 0 0 300 dot false 0 Circle -7500403 true true 90 90 120 face happy false 0 Circle -7500403 true true 8 8 285 Circle -16777216 true false 60 75 60 Circle -16777216 true false 180 75 60 Polygon -16777216 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120 15 105 40 104 45 90 60 90 90 105 105 120 120 120 105 60 120 60 135 30 150 15 165 30 180 60 195 60 180 120 195 120 210 105 240 90 255 90 263 104 285 105 270 120 285 135 240 165 240 180 270 195 240 210 180 210 165 195 Polygon -7500403 true true 135 195 135 240 120 255 105 255 105 285 135 285 165 240 165 195 line true 0 Line -7500403 true 150 0 150 300 line half true 0 Line -7500403 true 150 0 150 150 pentagon false 0 Polygon -7500403 true true 150 15 15 120 60 285 240 285 285 120 person false 0 Circle -7500403 true true 110 5 80 Polygon -7500403 true true 105 90 120 195 90 285 105 300 135 300 150 225 165 300 195 300 210 285 180 195 195 90 Rectangle -7500403 true true 127 79 172 94 Polygon -7500403 true true 195 90 240 150 225 180 165 105 Polygon -7500403 true true 105 90 60 150 75 180 135 105 plant false 0 Rectangle -7500403 true true 135 90 165 300 Polygon -7500403 true true 135 255 90 210 45 195 75 255 135 285 Polygon -7500403 true true 165 255 210 210 255 195 225 255 165 285 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