globals[microcredit-on?] ; Presence of microcredit ;extensions [sound] ; The sound extension provides primitives to add sound to the model breed [bankers Yunus] ; Three different breeds of turtles breed [women woman] breed [soldiers soldier] women-own [ workingcycles ; Number of worked cycles in the current week workingweeks ; Number of worked weeks wealth ; Women's wealth debts ; Loan's amount still to be paid insolvency ; Women's amount of insolvency renter? ; If true the woman has rent a cow by a usurer borrower? ; If true the woman has got a microcredit loan Yunus-contact? ; If true the woman has met Yunus is-working? ; If true the woman is working in the field instalment-payment? ; If true the woman has to pay the instalment cows ; Number of cows ploughs ; Number of ploughs tractors ; Number of tractors defaulter?] ; If true the woman has not completely paid the loan's amount patches-own [reserve ; Amount of bank's reserves in that patch fertility] ; Value of land's fertility ;############################################# SETUP ################################################# to setup ca set microcredit-on? false setup-turtles ask patches [setup-field setup-market] do-plots end to setup-field if (pycor <= 5) and (pycor >= -5) and (pxcor <= 12) and (pxcor >= 3) [set pcolor green ; The field is green set fertility land-fertility] ; The value of land's fertility depends on the value of the slider land-fertility end to setup-market if (pycor <= 5) and (pycor >= -5) and (pxcor = -9) [set pcolor orange] ; The market is orange end to setup-turtles set-default-shape women "person" create-women women-number [set color pink set renter? false set borrower? false set Yunus-contact? false set is-working? false set instalment-payment? false set defaulter? false set wealth ((random-float 5)+ 1)] ; Every woman starts with a different wealth level ask turtles [setxy random-xcor ((random 22)+ 6)] ; Women who work at home ask women with [who > (women-number / 1.3)] [setxy ((random -10)+ 2) ((random 11)- 5)] ; Women who work in the field end to do-plots set-current-plot "Totals" ; Set the first graph set-current-plot-pen "reserves" plot sum [reserve] of patches ; Graph plots the bank's reserves set-current-plot-pen "wealth" plot sum [wealth] of women ; Graph plots the sum of the women's wealth set-current-plot-pen "debts" plot sum [debts] of women ; Graph plots the sum of the women's debts set-current-plot "Women" ; Set the second graph set-current-plot-pen "total number" plot count women ; Graph plots the number of women still alive set-current-plot-pen "borrowers" plot count women with [borrower? = true] ; Graph plots the number of borrowers end to microcredit ; This procedure activates the microcredit activity if microcredit-on? = false [set microcredit-on? true set-default-shape bankers "person business" create-bankers 1 [ set color blue ] ask patches [if (pycor <= 5 ) and (pycor >= -5) and (pxcor <= -15) and (pxcor >= -16) [set pcolor white set reserve 75]]] end ;############################################# ACTION ################################################# to go do-plots if golpe = true and count soldiers <= 2 [create-soldiers 1 [setxy random-xcor random-ycor] ; It creates soldiers in case of golpe ;sound:play-note "GUNSHOT" 60 64 4 ] set-default-shape soldiers "person soldier" ask patches with [(random 110) < flood-intensity and (pycor <= 5) and (pycor >= -5) and (pxcor <= 12) and (pxcor >= 3) and natural-disaster = true and count patches with [pcolor = blue] < flood-intensity] [set pcolor blue] ; Some patches of the field become blue in case of natural-disaster ask patches [if (pycor <= 5) and (pycor >= -5) and (pxcor <= 12) and (pxcor >= 3) and natural-disaster = false [set pcolor green]] ; All the patches of the field return green at the end of natural-disaster every 1 [ask patches [if pcolor = white [set reserve (reserve - 0.01)]]] ; The bank supports operating costs if sum [reserve] of patches < -100 [stop] ; The simulation stops if the bank's reserves collapse under a -100 value ask soldiers [right random 360 back 1 ; Soldiers move randomly if golpe = false [die]] ; Soldiers die at the end of golpe ask bankers [right random 360 back 1 ; Yunus (the banker) moves randomly if not any? women with [Yunus-contact? = false] [die]] ; Yunus dies when he meets all the women ask women [ eat/die work-at-home start move rent borrow work refund buy civil-war ] ask women with [who > (women-number / 1.3)] [move2] end to eat/die set wealth (wealth - 0.0001) ; Women have to sustain daily expenses if wealth <= 0 [die] ; Women die if their wealth becomes zero if defaulter? = true [die] ; The defaulter automatically dies because he is no more important for the model end to work-at-home if borrower? = false and renter? = false and color != red [set wealth (wealth + 0.0001)] ; Women who work at home earn exactly what they need for the daily expenses end to start if any? bankers-here and Yunus-contact? = false [set Yunus-contact? true set renter? false set is-working? false set instalment-payment? false set workingcycles 0 set cows 0] end to move if Yunus-contact? = true and color = pink and borrower? = false [facexy ((random 2)- 16) ((random 11)- 5) fd 1] ; If Yunus meets a woman, she goes to the bank if Yunus-contact? = true and color = pink and borrower? = true [facexy ((random 10)+ 3) ((random 11)- 5) fd 1] ; At the end of golpe a woman, who worked in the field, returns to her original activity if color = yellow and is-working? = false and instalment-payment? = false ; Women with a loan go from the bank to the field [set heading 90 if xcor <= -8 [fd random-float 0.99] if xcor > -8 [fd random-float 10.9]] if is-working? = true [fd 0] if instalment-payment? = true [set heading 270 ; Women who have to pay the instalment go to the bank fd random 3] if color = red [right random 360 back 1] ; Women involved in golpe move randomly if color = red and golpe = false [set color pink ; At the end of golpe women return to their previous activity if debts > 0 [set borrower? true]] end to move2 if Yunus-contact? = false [if renter? = false [set heading 270 fd random-float 1] if renter? = true [if is-working? = false and instalment-payment? = false [facexy ((random 10)+ 3) ((random 11)- 5) fd 5.9] ; Renters go to the field if is-working? = true [fd 0]] if color = red and golpe = false [set renter? true]] end to borrow if pcolor = white and borrower? = false and Yunus-contact? = true and reserve >= 25 and defaulter? = false and color != red ; Women obtain a loan from the bank [set wealth (wealth + 25) set debts (debts + 25) set borrower? true set color yellow set reserve (reserve - 25.1)] ; The bank supports transaction costs end to work if pcolor = green or pcolor = blue and borrower? = true and instalment-payment? = false [set color yellow set is-working? true if pcolor = green [set wealth (wealth + (0.00001 * fertility + 0.0008 * cows + 0.0012 * ploughs + 0.0015 * tractors + workingweeks * 0.000001) / count women-here)] ; Women work to accumulate wealth if pcolor = blue [set wealth (wealth + ((0.00001 * fertility + 0.0008 * cows + 0.0012 * ploughs + 0.0015 * tractors + workingweeks * 0.000001)/ 10) / count women-here)] ; Women accumulate less wealth when there is a natural-disaster set workingcycles (workingcycles + 1)] if borrower? = true and is-working? = true and workingcycles = 300 ; After 300 cycles women have to pay the instalment [set is-working? false set workingcycles 0 set workingweeks (workingweeks + 1) set instalment-payment? true set heading 270 fd random 10 ] end to refund if pcolor = white and instalment-payment? = true and color = yellow [set instalment-payment? false if wealth > (0.5 + interest-rate / 200) and debts > 0.5 [set wealth (wealth - (0.5 + (interest-rate / 200))) ; Instalment payment with interest set debts (debts - 0.5) set reserve (reserve + (0.5 + (interest-rate / 200)) - (0.2 * (interest-rate / 100)))] ; The bank supports transaction costs if wealth > (0.5 + interest-rate / 200) and debts <= 0.5 [set borrower? false set color pink set wealth (wealth - (debts + ((interest-rate / 100) * debts))) set debts 0 set reserve (reserve + (debts + ((interest-rate / 100) * debts))) if wealth > insolvency [set insolvency 0 set wealth (wealth - insolvency) ; At the last instalment, the women have to pay also the insolvency amount set reserve (reserve + insolvency)] if wealth <= insolvency ; If women cannot pay the insolvency, they become defaulter [set defaulter? true] ] if wealth <= (0.5 + interest-rate / 200) and debts > 0 ; If women cannot pay the full instalment, they accumulate an insolvency amount [set insolvency (insolvency + (0.5 + interest-rate / 200))] ] end to rent if pcolor = orange and microcredit-on? = false and renter? = false and color != red [set cows (cows + 1) ; Women rent a cow from the usurers set renter? true] if pcolor = orange and instalment-payment? = true and renter? = true [set instalment-payment? false set wealth (wealth - 0.65)] ; Instalment payment of the rent if pcolor = green or pcolor = blue and renter? = true and instalment-payment? = false [set is-working? true if pcolor = green [set wealth (wealth + (0.00001 * fertility + 0.0008 * cows + 0.0012 * ploughs + 0.0015 * tractors + workingweeks * 0.0000005) / count women-here)] ; Women work to accumulate wealth if pcolor = blue [set wealth (wealth + ((0.00001 * fertility + 0.0008 * cows + 0.0012 * ploughs + 0.0015 * tractors + workingweeks * 0.0000005)/ 10) / count women-here)] ; Women accumulate less wealth when there is a natural-disaster set workingcycles (workingcycles + 1)] if renter? = true and is-working? = true and workingcycles = 600 ; After 600 cycles women have to pay the instalment [set is-working? false set workingcycles 0 set workingweeks (workingweeks + 1) set instalment-payment? true set heading 270 fd random 10] end to buy if pcolor = orange and color = yellow and instalment-payment? = false ; Women can buy an essential facility at the market [if wealth >= 25 and cows < 1 [set cows (cows + 1) set wealth (wealth - 10)] if wealth >= 35 and ploughs < 1 [set ploughs (ploughs + 1) set wealth (wealth - 20)] if wealth >= 45 and tractors < 1 [set tractors (tractors + 1) set wealth (wealth - 30)]] end to civil-war if any? soldiers-here and count women with [color = red] <= golpe-intensity * (women-number / 100) ; Women, who meet soldiers, become red and lose half of their wealth [set is-working? false set instalment-payment? false set borrower? false set renter? false set color red set wealth (wealth / 2)] end @#$#@#$#@ GRAPHICS-WINDOW 205 10 644 470 16 16 13.0 1 10 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 -16 16 -16 16 0 0 1 ticks CC-WINDOW 5 484 1088 579 Command Center 0 BUTTON 6 10 69 43 NIL setup NIL 1 T OBSERVER NIL NIL NIL NIL BUTTON 69 10 132 43 step go NIL 1 T OBSERVER NIL NIL NIL NIL BUTTON 134 10 197 43 go go T 1 T OBSERVER NIL NIL NIL NIL MONITOR 13 364 100 409 reserves ($) sum [reserve] of patches 4 1 11 SWITCH 677 60 802 93 natural-disaster natural-disaster 1 1 -1000 PLOT 677 183 1010 435 Totals time totals 0.0 10.0 0.0 10.0 true true PENS "reserves" 1.0 0 -16777216 true "wealth" 1.0 0 -13791810 true "debts" 1.0 0 -955883 true SWITCH 676 18 801 51 golpe golpe 1 1 -1000 MONITOR 113 312 195 357 borrowers count women with [borrower? = true] 17 1 11 MONITOR 112 365 195 410 wealth ($) sum [wealth] of women 4 1 11 SLIDER 677 140 849 173 flood-intensity flood-intensity 0 110 55 1 1 NIL HORIZONTAL MONITOR 13 418 99 463 debts ($) sum [debts] of women 4 1 11 SLIDER 9 188 181 221 interest-rate interest-rate 0 50 10 1 1 % HORIZONTAL SLIDER 678 99 850 132 golpe-intensity golpe-intensity 0 100 30 1 1 NIL HORIZONTAL BUTTON 34 44 170 101 NIL microcredit NIL 1 T OBSERVER NIL NIL NIL NIL TEXTBOX 671 439 821 467 Microcredit\nAlberto Ciancio - Giulia Grignani 11 0.0 1 MONITOR 14 311 101 356 NIL count women 17 1 11 MONITOR 112 418 193 463 insolvency($) sum [insolvency] of women 4 1 11 SLIDER 9 140 181 173 women-number women-number 0 300 100 1 1 NIL HORIZONTAL SLIDER 7 240 179 273 land-fertility land-fertility 0 100 50 1 1 NIL HORIZONTAL PLOT 864 15 1079 173 Women time number 0.0 10.0 0.0 10.0 true true PENS "default" 1.0 0 -2064490 false "total number" 1.0 0 -2064490 true "borrowers" 1.0 0 -1184463 true @#$#@#$#@ WHAT IS IT? ----------- Our model simulates a small and simple economy in Bangladesh where it is possible to activate a microcredit programme. We focus on the comparison between a static economy without a microfinance institution and a dynamic economy with a bank and the possibility to obtain loans and so to improve the quality of life in Bangladesh. HOW IT WORKS ------------ The model begins with an economy of 100 women endowed with a random initial wealth. Most of them stay at home to work, so they can survive (earning the bare minimum to face everyday household expenses). The remaing part works getting loans for essential facilities from money-lenders; so they earn more than the housewives, but the instalments are very high and they still remain poor. When the Microcredit button is on, a bank and a banker are created. The banker goes round randomly and prevails upon the women to raise a loan and guiding them to the bank. The probability that he meets them is sufficiently high to involve all the women in the short run. At the beginning, the bank has got a limited quantity of reserves; when a woman reaches it, she receives a loan only if some reserves are available. In the original microcredit model, the loans are given to groups of five women who form an autonomous fund; we have assumed that every woman represents one of these groups. After getting the loan, a woman can start a little activity through a fixed investment (such as the purchase of a cow, a plough or a tractor), then she goes to the field to work and to accumulate wealth. The labour productivity increases ongoing, but it depends on the fixed investments. When the women start to pay the instalments, the bank reserves increase and also those, who originally were unemployed, become borrowers and workers. The patches are: - white if they represent the bank - green if they represent the field - blue if they represent the flooded field - orange if they represent the essential facility market The turtles are: - pink if they are women who have not yet received a loan - yellow if they are borrowers - blue if he is the banker - dark-green if they are soldiers during the coup d’état The graphs show: - the number of women (pink curve: total number; yellow curve: number of borrowers) - the economy variables (black curve: amount of the bank’s reserves; orange curve: amount of women’s debts; light-blue curve: amount of women’s wealth) HOW TO USE IT ------------- Click to the buttons to: - set-up: it initialises the model’s variables (without a microcredit institution) - go: it starts a forever simulation - step: it starts with one cycle of simulation - microcredit: it creates the bank and the banker Use the sliders to pick the initial settings for the model and see what happens to the economy. - modify the interest rate that the bank has fixed at 10% until a maximum of 50% - modify the number of women that has been fixed at 100 until a maximum of 300 women - modify the value of the fertility of the patches of the field that is originally at 50% until a maximum of 100% - modify the intensity of the coup d’état that has been fixed at 30% until a maximum of 100%. (only if the golpe switch is on) - modify the intensity of the flood in the case of a natural disaster that has been fixed at 55 until a maximum of 110 (only of the natural disaster switch is on) Check the values of the monitors while changing the previous economic and demographic variables: - total number of women still alive in the economy - number of borrowers - amount of the bank’s reserves (in USD) - amount of women’s wealth (in USD) - amount of women’s debts (in USD) - amount of women’s insolvency (in USD) Switch on one of the two exogenous events and see what changes in economy: - Golpe (coup d'état), it creates three soldiers who prevent the women from working, from paying the instalments and so from accumulating wealth - Natural-disaster, it creates some blue patches (flooded) in the field that are less productive than those green (normal) and so it takes the women more time to accumulate wealth and pay the instalments THINGS TO NOTICE ---------------- Firstly, the economy without a microcredit finance institution is not dynamic, few women die, but they do not increase their wealth and the economy remains stable. Than, the women can survive and eventually become richer only under certain economic, demographic, political and environmental conditions. How many women are allowed to survive in order to provide a sustained economic growth? From the bank point of view, it has limited reserves available which set the possibility to work for the women. If they become insolvent, they cannot snuff their debts and so they disappear because they are not anymore relevant for the bank. In addition, the role of the market is very important because, without a microcredit programme, the women are not able to buy the essential facilities, they are constrained to pay the usurers and the economy cannot grow. While with the microcredit, they can buy and own goods to work and improve their wealth. THINGS TO TRY ------------- Try to run the economy without the bank and the banker and try to change the economic and demographic values. The start again the simulation, but with the microcredit button activated and do the same experiments, comparing the different results. Take care also of the time variable and observe how long does it takes the economy to reach an equilibrium or the women to die. EXTENDING THE MODEL ------------------- The model could be expanded with an analysis of the relationship between the amount of the bank's reserves and the wealth of women (the Grameen bank's clients are directly owners of 94% of the bank's capital). Moreover, it could be possible to create the possibility to have children (increase of the demographic rate) when the women achieve a certain income. Finally, it could be possible to promote foreign investments and trades, giving the possibility to the economy to continue in the direction of growth. RELATED MODELS -------------- A previous students’ project work “Microcredit: a Micro Way for a Macro Challenge.” by L. Boetti, M. Bruno, G. Gili at http://web.econ.unito.it/terna/ CREDITS AND REFERENCES ---------------------- “The banker of the poor” by M. Yunus, 1998 “A world without poverty” by M. Yunus, 2008 http://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bangladesh http://www.grameen-info.org/ “Understanding and Dealing with High Interest Rates on Microcredit” by N.A. Fernando, Asian Development Bank “Microcredit Interest Rates in Bangladesh” by D.L. Wright and D.A.H. Alamgir, Donors’ Local Consultative Group on Finance @#$#@#$#@ default true 0 Polygon -7500403 true true 150 5 40 250 150 205 260 250 airplane true 0 Polygon -7500403 true true 150 0 135 15 120 60 120 105 15 165 15 195 120 180 135 240 105 270 120 285 150 270 180 285 210 270 165 240 180 180 285 195 285 165 180 105 180 60 165 15 arrow true 0 Polygon -7500403 true true 150 0 0 150 105 150 105 293 195 293 195 150 300 150 box false 0 Polygon -7500403 true true 150 285 285 225 285 75 150 135 Polygon -7500403 true true 150 135 15 75 150 15 285 75 Polygon -7500403 true true 15 75 15 225 150 285 150 135 Line -16777216 false 150 285 150 135 Line -16777216 false 150 135 15 75 Line -16777216 false 150 135 285 75 bug true 0 Circle -7500403 true true 96 182 108 Circle -7500403 true true 110 127 80 Circle -7500403 true true 110 75 80 Line -7500403 true 150 100 80 30 Line -7500403 true 150 100 220 30 butterfly true 0 Polygon -7500403 true true 150 165 209 199 225 225 225 255 195 270 165 255 150 240 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